Senator Susan Collins, who I worked for at the time, had just come back from a meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  She and Senator Joe Lieberman had presented Reid with a very reasonable and fair proposal to allow a limited number of Republican amendments on the Defense Authorization bill, as a means to secure enough GOP support to invoke cloture on the bill, allowing debate, and securing its eventual passage.

Immediately after that meeting (and without telling Collins), Reid marched onto the Senate floor and announced that he was scheduling a vote.  Something very strange was happening, because Reid knew that without a deal to allow Republican amendments, the bill would fail.

Senator Collins was incensed.  The Defense bill and DADT repeal were both important to her, and she had expended a great deal of political capital advocating for them.  At this point, she was the only Republican willing to publicly push for the repeal, and she knew that holding a vote at that time would kill all the progress that had been made.

She virtually sprinted to the Senate floor to make an impassioned speech, expressing her bewilderment at the Majority Leader’s actions, and took him to task for sacrificing a vitally important bill on the altar of partisan politics.  Reid, of course, walked away and moved forward with the vote anyway.

The bill was promptly blocked by a GOP filibuster, just like Reid knew it would be.  There were real concerns with the legislation that Republicans wanted to address, and the Majority Leader knew that without any allowance for amendments the bill would die.  The fact that he brought it up anyway meant he was up to something.

Before we could even blink, a report by Greg Sargent of the Washington Post hit, quoting anonymous aides to Harry Reid, claiming that Senator Collins was making unreasonable demands such as an insistence on unlimited debate, which were of course complete fabrications and never part of the proposal she had made.

My email account was simultaneously being overwhelmed with liberal authors from leading gay rights blogs, parroting the exact same narrative and demanding answers.  It quickly became obvious to us that Harry Reid and his allies in the White House were actively engaged in a coordinated attempt to torpedo the Defense bill, and blame Republican hyper-partisanship for its failure and for blocking repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.

The White House and Harry Reid had decided that hammering home the “party of no” narrative, and painting the Republicans as obstinate obstructionists was, to them, good politics. Better politics than passing the historic legislation, it seems.

But Reid got outflanked.  Senator Collins, together with Senator Lieberman, unexpectedly introduced a standalone DADT repeal bill, intended to go around Reid’s roadblocks.  After a great deal of lobbying to rally a number of other Republicans to support the bill – a necessary step to prevent a filibuster – her bill eventually passed 65-31, thanks almost entirely to Senators Collins and Lieberman.

Wednesday, President Obama completed his supposed “evolution” on the gay marriage issue by coming out in favor, personally.  In the fawning coverage by much of the media for his “support”, the repeal of DADT has often been cited as an accomplishment of his, which it was not.

The president, who we all knew favored gay marriage since at least 1996, pretended to oppose it in 2008 for his own political benefit.  Then he winked at the gay community by saying he was “evolving” on the issue, which is political code for, “I can’t say what I really believe right now, but elect me to a second term and we’ll talk.”

Politics is, above all, what matters to this the supposedly post-partisan president.  I saw up close the White House and its Democratic allies actively trying to stop, for political purposes, the very legislation they are now taking undue credit for.

Instead, a lone Republican Senator from Maine was the one actually taking a phenomenal personal and political risk, and ultimately proved to be the real engine behind the repeal.

So while I consider the president’s rhetorical support for gay marriage to be a welcome development, I’ll believe the conversion genuine when I see some tangible proof.

Until then, I’ll believe this – like so much with President Obama – is a cynical case of political gamesmanship driven by opportunism, not principle.

Suddenly, as I continued to slip in and out of consciousness, I started seeing pictures of the White House on my screen. I read the text below the pictures, which said that we were awaiting a major announcement from the president.

Presidential addresses are rather unusual that late at night so I knew something important had to have happened. Adrenaline began coursing through my body as I started to hear the pundits speculate what might be going on, a feeling that was only amplified when I logged into Twitter to see the words “Osama bin Laden” and “dead” being repeated ad nauseam.

The rest is history. The president announced what the country had been longing to hear for an entire decade. Spontaneous, celebratory rallies broke out at the gates of the White House and downtown Manhattan and a sense of relieved satisfaction captured our country.

Not wanting to miss the historic occasion, I got up, got dressed and drove to the White House to join the celebration. It was quite a surreal experience with the streets of Washington, D.C., alive with honking cars, screaming college students and more waving American flags than you are likely to ever see again.

One of my favorite images from that night was a group of Marines who had climbed a tree outside the gate to the White House and were proudly waving both a Marine Corps flag and the Stars and Stripes as a crowd gathered around them to applaud and scream out “thank you.” Hard not to be proud at that moment.

In the aftermath of the operation that killed bin Laden, I thought the president handled himself magnificently. He did not “spike the football” as is so customary in the politics of national security, but rather let the entire saga speak for itself. The focus was clearly SEAL Team Six and as a result the White House got some glowing coverage of its role as a bonus.

I was paying very close attention that night and the right was almost universally in praise of the president. The consensus seemed to be that Obama deserved credit for the mission being a priority and making a difficult, risky call that paid off. I saw virtually no criticism and I myself heaped copious praise on the commander in chief.

Sadly, that dignified, respectful behavior has come to an end, coinciding with the beginning of the 2012 general election.

In the past week, using the anniversary of the raid as cover, the White House has morphed into a nakedly political, inappropriate and opportunistic machine, attempting to extract as much electoral benefit for the president as possible. Campaign commercials, opportunistic interviews, offensive soundbites and unending political activity attempting to capitalize on the raid by framing it as a heroic presidential decision and barely mentioning the SEALS is now the norm.

As somebody who was so proud of a president of the opposite party for his adult, statesmanlike response to a major success, I find this all the more disappointing.

The president approved the plan and it was a gutsy call. But the SEALs are the ones that risked their lives and executed that plan, not the president, and any attempt to take a political victory lap on their backs is, in my opinion, disrespectful and wrong.

Strutting about the bin Laden raid is in horrendously bad taste. It is immature, it is grandstanding, political, phony and worst of all it is disrespectful to the anonymous soldiers who could have died in that raid but have to remain in the shadows. These men do not themselves get to take a victory lap in public in celebration of their deed.

As long as those SEALs remain unrecognized, it is inappropriate for their commander in chief to attempt to accumulate political points as a result of their sacrifice.

When heroes go unheralded and politicians claim credit, something is very wrong. Let your decisions speak for themselves, Mr. President, and honor the sacrifice of the men who actually risked their lives in that raid.

The irony is that you probably would gain more political benefit and earn more respect if you showed some class. This is not the new kind of politics that you promised us.

LePage’s modus operandi has always been to do things differently than they have been done before. That personality trait is a big part of his appeal to those who support him, for sure. One thing he did differently last week was to use a tool that previous governors have had at their disposal but have neglected to use: the line-item veto.

The line-item veto is something that has never been used in Maine. I find this more than a little curious, because typically when an executive is given the power to do something, he or she will find a way to use that power to most effectively pursue their agenda.

More curious, though, is the fact that the people of Maine very obviously wanted their governor to have and use this power. When the referendum was put in front of the voters in 1995, 71 percent of them voted to institute the line-item veto.

It is easy to see why. The money spent by the government is your money and my money. Oliver Wendell Holmes once said, “Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society,” and he was, of course, right.

But Maine voters have always been cognizant of the fact that price is paid with the blood, sweat and tears of hard work — on fishing boats, in the woods or in an office — and that every penny the government takes should be spent wisely. Doing anything else is disrespect to the labor and creativity of the people that money was confiscated from.

Augusta has always viewed tax money as a plaything and has done a magnificent job wasting it over the years. Tax dollars are spent on things that have no business having tax dollars spent on, resources are allocated inefficiently and to the wrong places, government programs are antiquated and do not effectively accomplish their goals and year after year budgets (and taxes) go up to feed the unquenched thirst of the government to grow and spend more.

In 1995, the people of Maine spoke loudly, and said they wanted their governor to judiciously review what our government spent money on and have the authority to reject what he or she saw as wasteful spending.

The fact that no one has used that power to this point is, frankly, astounding. Failing to use tools you are given to govern is negligent, although hardly surprising given the fact that the two previous governors who had the chance to use it were big spenders: Angus King and John Baldacci.

It seems that when you like spending money recklessly and you have allies in the legislature who like spending money recklessly, cutting out the fat with a scalpel probably seems pointless. Neither King nor Baldacci wanted to rock the boat or be painted as the bad guy, so punting the spending down the field and raising taxes became standard operating procedure in Augusta.

Maine’s governor is, compared to executives in other states, a rather powerful office. Whoever sits in that office in the Blaine House has a responsibility to use all the tools at their disposal to make sure Maine’s precious tax dollars are spent wisely, and effectively. The line-item veto is one of those tools, and it should be used.

Governor LePage took out his pen last Saturday and did something that no governor in Maine had done before. Perhaps had previous governors done their job and used the authority the Maine people asked them to use, kept spending and taxes in check and managed the state more effectively, LePage’s veto might never have been necessary.

Now that I think about it, wasn’t it the left that lectured the rest of us that we were to dispense with martial metaphors in politics in the aftermath of Tucson? A rule for thee but not for me, it seems. But I digress.

So how did this war start? It seems to be that Rush Limbaugh — the man who was appointed by the left (not the right) as our spokesman — is a magnificently misogynistic malcontent intent on maligning my mother (and all other women as well). It also seems that one particular Republican presidential candidate, Rick Santorum, doesn’t like birth control very much.

That, it seems, is enough to speak for the entire movement and constitute a “war.”

Pay no mind to the fact that Rush’s influence over the Republican Party is a Democratic talking point, not a reality, and that Santorum was so unappealing to Republican primary voters that he, as the supposedly conservative option, was unable to come close to beating the very moderate Mitt Romney. No, what matters is that a flood of press releases and ivory tower speeches from Democrats say that we are at war.

But when all the rhetoric and nonsense is stripped out, the picture we are left with in reality is very different. The left, you see, seems to have some dirty laundry of its own.

Enter Democratic consultant Hilary Rosen, who just insulted basically every stay-at-home mom in America. With classic arrogance, she claimed that Mitt Romney’s wife, Ann Romney, shouldn’t talk about women and the economy because she “hasn’t worked a day in her life.”

Staying home and raising five sons is apparently neither respectable work nor something that qualifies one to talk speak issues that impact women. Apparently to Rosen, all women are the same. Anyone who does not fit her preferred archetype — metropolitan, single, working women without families, it seems — is invalid and unqualified. And here I thought we were to be tolerant and understanding of lifestyles different than our own.

But more important than ignorant bloviating — so bad it had to be rebuked by not one but two senior advisors at the White House — is actual policy.

To hear the left tell it, opposing a federal government mandate that insurers provide free contraception is the preeminent women’s issue of our time. What else could be as important?

Here’s a thought: perhaps policies that actually affect how women live their daily lives? Things like being able to afford living expenses, being able to provide for their families and being free to make their own choices about what to do with their lives. Things like taking more and more money from women by constantly trying to raise taxes, making it harder for women to be providers, mothers and entrepreneurs?

The list is long. Democrats in Maryland tried to raise the gas tax. Democrats in North Carolina and Washington tried to raise the sales tax. Democrats in California are trying to raise the state’s income tax to the highest in the nation. Democrats in Connecticut already pushed through the largest tax hike in that state’s history. Democrats in Illinois increased income taxes by 66 percent.

And that is to say nothing about the disproportionately large share of job loss suffered by women in the three years of the Obama administration.

In Maine, the story is no different. Decades of Democratic rule have pushed taxes upward at every level of government, making lives harder for both women and men. Now, when an attempt is made to ease that burden, it is opposed by those same Democrats.

Let’s be honest — the idea that any large scale political movement of any kind in this country truly has a motivation to wage a “war against women” is preposterous. We all — Democrats, Republicans and everyone else — want what is best for our mothers, sisters and daughters. It is usually a good idea to assume good faith.

But good intentions aside, one side of the political spectrum is standing in a house made of glass and throwing a very hard rock. For a party with such an atrocious record on the most basic, tangible kitchen table issues that most affect women’s lives, that takes some guts.

This sets up a rather intriguing matchup, as state Senator Debra Plowman (full disclosure, Plowman is my old state rep and senator from my home town of Hampden, and is also somebody I have a great deal of respect for) has also taken out paperwork for a potential run.

Plowman, of course, is in Senate leadership and has run point on a number of very key pieces of legislation this term.  She has also had her hand in everything from recruiting, to political strategy for the party, and is widely looked upon as the strongest possible candidate.

But Weston, the young, brash, and very capable Mayor of Bangor, has quickly made a name for himself as a rising star – both as a politician, and within the Republican Party.  Having a political base in the Queen City is a very strong position with which to launch a congressional campaign (indeed, John Baldacci got his start on the Bangor city council), and he would be very formidable in both the primary and the general election.

On the Democratic side, all eyes are on minority leader Emily Cain.  Cain has already taken out paperwork for a potential run as well, and will likely be the consensus choice of Democrats to take up the mantle if (when) Mike Michaud formally submits his signatures and becomes a candidate for Senate.

Matt Dunlap, the previous front runner (I guess… who can even tell) for the Democratic nod for Senate, has expressed interest in running in the second district as well.  He is a more natural fit for the district as a somewhat conservative Democrat, but is nowhere near the dynamic personality Cain is, and has proven to be a lethargic, uninspiring Senate candidate.

If Raye stays in the House race and faces off with Cain (or Dunlap), the Republicans have to be considered the favorites for capturing the seat.  Raye has near universal name ID in the second district, has a visible post as a moderate counterbalance to Governor LePage, and has of course run before.  Those advantages will prove important against the much younger, less experienced Cain, who has not run a campaign larger than a Maine House of Representatives district (a constituency of roughly 8,000) to date.  She could certainly do well, but it would be an uphill climb for her, for sure.

If Raye jumps to the Senate, however, and Cain or Dunlap faces off with Weston or Plowman, that sets up a very competitive race that will be fascinating to watch.  Were I a betting man, I would still guess the Republicans would have a slight advantage in such a race, but to be perfectly honest, it could very easily go either way.

In the first district, Senate Majority Leader Jon Courtney has reversed his earlier decision to not run, and has taken out paperwork to get into the race.  His entry is of course predicated on Pingree moving up to run for Senate, so don’t look for him to go the distance unless she moves on.

Courtney would be the highest profile entrant for the Republicans, but others have expressed interest.

The real interesting race is shaping up on the Democratic side, as a gargantuan list of candidates has begun preparing.  Each of the Democrats who were previously running for Senate – Hinck and fan favorite Cynthia Dill – have taken paperwork out for the House seat.  I am also told that Ethan Strimling is “getting the old gang together, and is serious”, and that 2008 contender Adam Cote is very serious as well.

They may be joined by Wellington Lyons, Mark Gartley, David Lamoine and David Costa, among others.  Don’t be surprised if that primary turns into ten or more people, given the attractiveness of the district for the Democratic party.

That sets up a likely race between Courtney and whatever bloody, wounded, barely living carcass of a candidate emerges from the Democratic primary.  Courtney is not to be underestimated, in his Senate races he has performed very well in some left leaning areas of his district, and whoever the winner of the Democratic primary is will likely be fairly weak (just given the list of names), so this could shape up to be a race to watch.  You would still have to give the advantage to the Democratic nominee, just based on the nature of the district, but it will be competitive at least.

All of these names are just the tip of the iceberge – there are dozens more that I haven’t mentioned.  We are still waiting for the other shoe to drop, to find out if Michaud, Pingree, or both are going to give up their seats.

If they both make a go at it, this will be the most interesting election cycle in memory.

I am told that those talks are now dead.  Speaker Nutting is on record opposing such a move, and the legislature as a whole is apparently uninterested in moving on the proposal, with one very high ranking Republican characterizing it to me thusly:

…it doesn’t seem fair to me.  I am told that a similar situation occurred when George Mitchell and Bill Cohen dropped out late.  Just because we are in the eighth inning and don’t have enough players on the bench to suit some, doesn’t mean that we extend the game by a couple of innings.

So it looks like the scramble for March 15th continues.

There was some question about the ability of the legislature to actually do this yesterday, but it seems at this point that moving the date is something that can be done, and the governor is seriously looking at it.

From what I’m told, the proposal would be a Governor’s bill submitted to the legislature, and would allow for additional breathing room for both parties to collect signatures to get on the ballot, perhaps to the end of March or early April.

If approved, this move would significantly change the fledgling race for Senate, and give more candidates the ability to actually consider a run, and execute the logistical requirements to get on the ballot if they decide to do it.

Both Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree are currently gathering signatures for a run, while they consider their options.  I have heard – more than once – that the national Democratic machine is talking to both of them, and putting intense pressure on them to decide between themselves who will run, and who will not run.

The prospect of Michaud and Pingree facing off in a primary is a disaster for the Democratic party.  It would immediately open up both of their House seats, leaving them vulnerable (especially the second district) to Republican takeovers, and setting up a very expensive, very bloody fight for the Senate nomination.  If the eventual Democratic nominee lost, and one or both of the House seats fell, you are looking at an Armageddon situation for Maine (and national) Democrats.

So at this moment both are going through the motions of running, but privately being urged to have one stay put.  My sources are telling me that of the two, surprisingly, Mike Michaud is the more deadly serious about running, and indeed one operative let slip to me this morning that he may have already filed his paperwork to run.  As I suggested last night, things here will move very fast.

But don’t count out Pingree.  A United States Senate seat only comes up once every 15 or 20 years (sometimes longer) in Maine, and this is her shot.  Everyone in the House wants to be a Senator, and Pingree has the itch pretty bad.  There is a very real scenario where they now both run in the primary.

Still, I am hearing that she is happy with her trajectory in the House, is on the cusp of nailing down some leadership positions in the near future, and may want to stay where she is.  Clearly Michaud has higher interest than her at this point.

Additionally, former Governor Baldacci is almost guaranteed to run.  One Democratic activist I talked to said Baldacci is “90% in”, which echoes what I have heard from other Democratic activists close to him.  If both Pingree and Michaud get in, and are joined by Baldacci, we are in for a wild ride.

Speaking of wild rides, a source close to Angus King tells me this morning that King is “seriously considering” a run.  Unlike Pingree and Michaud, however, he has more time to mull it over as his filing deadline is June 1st.  This is the first indication that King may be seriously running, because up to this point his name has mostly been dropped by people simply speculating.  This is more substantial than that.

I’m also hearing increased chatter that Cutler may take a pass.  I remain convinced that this Senate race is a much better slot for Cutler than a 2014 gubernatorial contest, but let’s never forget that Cutler is on the record stating that it was his lifelong ambition from childhood to be Governor of Maine.  His desire to settle the score with LePage and run in two years may dissuade him from taking a shot at the race this time.

Interesting talk circulating around Steve Abbott, as well.  Last night I heard a resounding chorus of “no, no, no” from most GOP political operatives.  This morning, sources very close to Abbott are starting to say “maybe, maybe, maybe.”  The key to his potential candidacy will be Peter Cianchette.

If Cianchette runs, Abbott will almost certainly pass on the race and support him.  If Cianchette doesn’t run, the door remains wide open for Abbott, and he would have every reason to jump into the race.

Abbott would be a perfect fit for this race in virtually every way.  He is unquestionably more fiscally conservative than Senator Snowe, which would undoubtedly make many of her critics happy, but has the same social moderation, which is important for the general election.

He has the political connections, ability to raise money, experience, and intelligence to make one of the most formidable candidates on the Republican side, and as I mentioned yesterday, his time at the University of Maine has extended a great deal more credibility to him, and rounded out his public personality.

Look for one of the two – Abbott or Cianchette – to get in, and rally a substantial amount of support behind them, perhaps clearing the field.  Right now, the early money is on Cianchette…

Bruce Poliquin is increasingly likely to jump in.  Source very close to the Treasurer tells me he is “likely to very likely” to jump in, and characterizes the potential House race as a complete waste of time.  With Pingree potentially staying put, that decision becomes all the easier for him.

This all changes the calculus significantly for Kevin Raye as well.  With Michaud almost certainly taking the plunge for Senate, the second district race becomes his to lose if he stays put.  The virtual guarantee of a House seat is a very attractive idea, and would position Raye well for a Senate run whenever Susan Collins retires.

More to come.

The news is still shocking, and that shock hasn’t worn off.  I’m not alone, though – I received a call this evening from a staffer who was in the room when Governor LePage learned of Snowe’s decision.  “Oh… shit” the governor said, flabbergasted, before shaking it off and returning to his work.  [pardon my French]

Dozens of people from both parties have been waiting to run for Olympia Snowe‘s seat for years, and operatives will be on the phone much later than I this evening, talking about who will be doing what in the next 48 hours.

And that’s the important part:  decisions are going to need to be made by everyone in the next couple of days at the latest.  Expect some decisions made by tomorrow.

Why?  The deadline to get on the primary ballot for Republican and Democratic candidates is March 15.  Any interested candidate will need to get 2,000 certified signatures by that date (which means well above 2,000 total if you figure in the names that will be thrown out), or they won’t be on the ballot.

The logistical requirements of actually meeting that hurdle are very high.  This is not something that can be done by a political novice in two weeks – indeed it is a difficult task for established figures.

In the 2010 gubernatorial contest, both Democrats and Republicans were having a difficult time getting enough signatures, and most campaigns only managed to finish collecting them a few days before they were due.  That was with a year (sometimes more) lead time.  People now have two weeks.

Unless something changes – I have heard mention that the Maine legislature has the capability to push that date back, but my sources say there have been no conversations about that yet – that means that the only people that can pull it off are folks with already established political machines, or people with the money to instantly purchase the manpower to get it done.

This has implications for more than just the Senate race.  If Chellie Pingree or Mike Michaud (or both) decide to run for the Senate seat, that means that potential candidates to replace them in the House of Representatives would have to meet that requirement as well.

All of this means decisions have to be made, and made fast.  This is especially true of Pingree and Michaud.

The picture of the three races impacted by Snowe’s decision to retire is beginning to take shape.  Yes, just a few hours after her announcement.

Contrary to some characterizations, this race does not turn from a guaranteed Republican hold to a guaranteed Democratic pickup.  The Republican bench is much stronger than it used to be, and all the major Democratic candidates have big flaws, so this race should start out as a pure toss-up in my book.

Independents

The first thing to consider here is the built in advantage for potential independent candidates.  They do not have primary campaigns to wage, and simply have to worry about getting on the general election ballot.  The filing deadline for independents and other parties is June 1st.

An interesting side note, the Americans Elect group has actually gained enough traction in Maine to be considered an officially recognized political party in the state.  It is possible that one of these candidates may run under that banner.

Eliot Cutler

Cutler is the 500 pound gorilla in the room.  Republicans, Democrats and others I have spoken with have come to the almost unifying consensus that if he jumps into the race, he is immediately the front runner.  While I think that may be a premature assessment to make, there is no doubt he would be a major force, and could be the early favorite.

Cutler has several built in advantages.  To start, as I just mentioned, he does not have to rush his push for ballot access.  He has until June 1st, and already has a political operation up and running.  He also has plenty of money available to him, and a positive political brand, having built up a lot of good will in his gubernatorial contest.

The question for Cutler is going to be what he wants to be – Governor, or a Senator.  If he is dead set for a re-match with Paul LePage in 2014, and wants to be Governor, he may very well take a pass on this race.  If, however, he wants to follow in the footsteps of his early political mentor, Ed Muskie, and attempt to insert himself into the pantheon of substantial U.S. Senators from Maine, he very well might take the plunge.

My gut?  He goes for it.  The arguments for him to do it sound more attractive to him than waiting another two years for a rematch against an incumbent governor.

Angus King

His name is come up, but nobody with any direct knowledge of what he wants to do has been doing the talking.  Those who mention him bring him up more in a “boy, he’d be crazy not to think about it” fashion – and with good reason.  King was Maine’s last popular governor, leaving office with an approval rating in the high 50s or low 60s.  He has credibility as an independent voice, and he has not shrunk from public view since leaving office.

He has no remaining political organization, but again, the lack of a truncated timetable to get on the ballot means that he would have some time to shave his beard, sell his RV, and rebuild one.

I think King takes a pass, but right now he has to at least be thinking about it.

The Democrats

Democrats have long understood that any serious rising stars in the party are wasted if they run against Snowe, which is why you consistently get candidates like Jean Hay-Bright running against her.  This year, the only people willing to stick their neck out to get steamrolled by her were Matt Dunlap, Jon Hinck, and Cynthia Dill.  Not exactly the cream of the crop, by any means.  But with Snowe clearing a path and making the race winnable, the big players are in the game.

Chellie Pingree

The first name on everyone’s lips is Chellie Pingree.  She has long been known to aspire to the Senate, and now is probably the best chance she will ever have to capture this seat.  In addition, she has an unlimited pot of money to call upon, an established political organization, and the bright prospect of a favorable media environment on her side.

In short, she has to be the early frontrunner for the Democrats.  She just has to.  She has the progressive wing of the party – which has increasingly become the party - firmly locked up, has the resources, and has the biggest microphone.  Most importantly, she already has a campaign apparatus available to her.  House members have to run every two years, have to keep campaign staff, have to raise money, etc.  That means that if she says yes, she is one of the few candidates that can immediately get people pounding the pavement to get signatures, and do so effectively.

Pingree has not come out with a public statement as of yet expressing interest, saying only that she will evaluate her options in the coming days.  The Democratic activists I have talked to, however, are saying she is taking a hard look at it.  She has to know that this is the best opportunity she will ever have to be a United States Senator.  Bet on her running.

Mike Michaud

Unlike Pingree, Michaud has publicly said that he is interested, and that he is “seriously considering” a potential Senate bid.

Michaud is the other heavy hitter who could hit the ground running tomorrow.  Like Pingree, he already has a political organization, staff, and money, and could likely organize the needed signatures to get on the ballot.

But as he considers his run, he has to consider the political calculus, and whether or not he should do it.  He is a much better general election candidate than Pingree, but a much weaker primary candidate in the Democratic Party.

His more conservative reputation and rhetoric does not sit well with southern Maine and coastal Democrats, which is a major concern as the Democratic Party in Maine continues to turn more cosmopolitan and progressive, and less blue collar and moderate.

Still, he would be a major force in the primary, would likely dominate his home district, and if he were to win the primary, would be in a strong position heading into the general election.  That may be enough to entice him into the race.

John Baldacci

Thought you had heard the last of former governor John Baldacci?  Think again.  All night, his name kept coming up.  He is apparently making no secret about his interest in the seat, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise given the fact that he always seemed a better fit (and more comfortable) in Congress than he did as Maine’s Chief Executive.

For any who doubt, Baldacci’s brother Joe pronounced proudly this evening that he believed John was going to make a comeback.  Quote Joe, “I think it will be likely that my brother will run.”

Baldacci faces his own challenges, not the least of which is the fact that he is neither popular statewide, nor within his own party.  When he left office, most estimates put his approval rating in the 20s or low 30s.  That’s quite bad.

Still, he has a formidable political machine, an army of Baldacci family members to circulate his petitions, and would likely be able to make it on the ballot.  He could also raise money quickly (and may in fact have some left over from his gubernatorial campaigns) and make himself competitive.  Difficult positioning aside, he is the governor who signed gay marriage into law, extended state-provided healthcare coverage and increased spending on social services, all of which are things his base would like in the primary.

Tom Allen, Steve Rowe, Libby Mitchell, etc

Sometimes names get thrown around by national observers lazily because they don’t know much about the on the ground particularities of Maine.  These names are great examples of that kind of drive by analysis.  While there is certainly some possibility that one or more of them will jump in, they all remain highly unlikely candidates.

Allen is the most likely of the bunch, being a former congressman.  But in the time since his loss to Senator Collins in 2008, his political sphere has deteriorated, and he would have to start from virtual scratch to get a campaign going.  Given the small window, expect him to stay out.

Former gubernatorial candidates like Rowe and Mitchell have been talked about a lot today, but neither is very likely.  Both struggled to collect signatures for their 2010 bids, and both have stepped away from politics, and have little to no base to start with.  Asking them to run would be asking too much.

Hannah Pingree, Rosa Scarcelli, Adam Cote, and Ethan Strimling

If Pingree throws her hat into the ring, all of the attention will turn to these four to fight over the right to take her place in Congress.  Hannah Pingree, the last Democratic speaker, has her own political organization to draw from, and will undoubtedly ride the coattails of her mother’s machine to get on the ballot.  Being a significantly better candidate than Chellie doesn’t hurt either.  She would be the front-runner for this seat, and the most likely to actually get what is needed accomplished.

Scarcelli has been getting a lot of bad – and weird – press lately, but remains a young, energetic, well-liked figure would could potentially pull it off.  She has a loyal staff, some money to burn, and some good will from her gubernatorial primary.  She might be able to get on the ballot.

Cote and Strimling are also names constantly brought up, mostly due to their 2008 runs, and perpetual visibility in that district.  I have significant doubts Cote could get on the ballot so quickly, but with his recent Portland mayoral campaign, Strimling could potentially give it a shot with some success.  It still remains a lot to ask.

Emily Cain, Pat McGowan, etc

The Democratic bench in the second district isn’t very strong, so if Michaud makes a run for the Senate, Democrats become slight underdogs in that race.

Emily Cain has been mentioned by a lot of people for consideration in the Senate, but if the Pingrees, Michauds and Baldaccis of the world announce they are running, it is difficult to imagine why she would bother.  More likely, she would have to take a hard look at the second district race, being the current minority leader in the Maine House, and having an attractive home base in Penobscot county.  It would be a difficult decision, though, as she has an almost guaranteed state Senate seat waiting for her, and would likely be in party leadership immediately there.

McGowan had a very underwhelming gubernatorial bid in 2010, but he remains the man who came closest to ending the Snowe institution.  Twice.  He’s run in the district twice, nearly beating the strongest Republican in the state each time.  He, like so many others, let his political operation whither on the vine after his gubernatorial loss, but given his history and attractive profile for the second district, may be able to ramp up quickly.  I would remain skeptical of this, though, as McGowan would likely face a major shortage of money to run such an operation, running as a clean elections candidate in 2010.

There is a very real scenario where the Democratic party does not field any nominee of worth, assuming Michaud takes the leap.  If that happens, Senate President Raye would have to think hard about passing up a guaranteed spot in Congress for a potential, hard fought spot in the Senate.  Speaking of Raye…

The Republicans

The good news for Republicans: this is 2012, and they have managed to build an actual bench of talent in the state.  There are in fact a number of potential candidates who have the profile, stature and capability to not only compete for this seat, but actually win it.

Indeed, every candidate would be considered more conservative than Senator Snowe, but none of them would be considered right-wing extremists either.  In other words, they all occupy a good spot, ideologically, for the Maine electorate.

The bad news, of course, is that Snowe isn’t running.  In a year when the Republicans need to retake the United States Senate, losing what would have been a certain Republican hold makes that job very much harder.

Harder, but very much doable.

Kevin Raye

Of all the candidates on the Republican side, Raye would likely have the easiest time getting on the ballot.  Gearing up for a tough race against Congressman Michaud in the second district, his political operation is already up and running, and working hard for their candidate.  Changing gears on the fly to move over to the Senate side is something he is capable of doing.

But does he want to?  As I’ve mentioned more than once now, Michaud’s exit from the second district leaves a massive hole that Democrats will have a very difficult time filling.  Raye has already geared up to run there, and would be a strong favorite if Michaud was no longer running.

That said, Raye is very much looking at the Senate race.  It was only about an hour after Snowe’s announcement that Raye sent out a press release, lauding Senator Snowe for her service, reminding everyone that he was her Chief of Staff, and stating outright that “In light of Olympia’s decision, my wife Karen and I will carefully weigh our plans for 2012.”

Sounds an awful lot like somebody getting out in front of the field, and planting a flag.

Paul LePage

Let me state up front that I do not expect Governor LePage to jump into this race.  Indeed, at no time today did I hear anyone say he was interested, or push rumors that he was looking into it. His presence on this list is a factor of one thing.  I had the exact same conversation with more than a dozen people today.  It went a little something like this:

“So, that March 15th filing deadline is a big deal.  That limits the people who are even capable of doing it.  I mean, basically who are we talking about here who can pull that off?”

“Well, Paul LePage… Kevin Raye…”

LePage, as the sitting governor with a dedicated political machine, strong activist support, and money in the bank, could do it.  He is one of the few who could pull it off, and the name that was repeated every time that question was asked.

That said, LePage doesn’t strike me as the type who would enjoy Washington politics, he is wired for executive positions, and I doubt he’d really want to go campaign right now.  I suppose anything is possible, but while LePage could pull it off, I don’t expect him to even bother.

Steve Abbott and Charlie Summers

Abbott has done everything right since losing his gubernatorial primary.  The best move he made was disentangling himself from all things politics, and entrenching himself at the University of Maine as the (so far) very successful and very high profile Athletic Director.  He seems unquestionably more “real” and “down to earth” as a result, and every single thing written in ink about him in the last year has been glowing.

Most Republicans I spoke with said more or less the same thing:  ”Honestly, I really want Abbott, but I doubt he wants to do it.”

Abbott is certainly in the moderate tradition given his affiliation with Senator Collins, but cut a somewhat more conservative profile during his 2010 bid.  This places him in the perfect position to run statewide.

The problem is, no one believes he wants the job.  Abbott has never held much affinity for Washington, D.C. (hard to blame him), and is widely believed to have chosen a crowded gubernatorial race over a more clear congressional race in 2010, because he loves Maine, wants to raise his kids here, and would prefer to stay.

Being a United States Senator would require a disruption to that plan – one he may simply be unwilling and uninterested in doing.  I’m hearing a lot of preemptive disappointment about him passing on the opportunity.

Charlie Summers is another “perfect fit” that you will likely see take a pass.  Much like Abbott, he is moderate with strong conservative tendencies, and has an impressive, attractive resume to run on.

Everyone looked to him as a potential candidate, but there just isn’t as much buzz about him as the others.  Importantly, as Secretary of State he doesn’t necessarily have the political organization (or money) to flip the switch and put all his chips in the middle of the table at the drop of a hat.

Both Abbott and Summers are the highest profile figures who are the least likely to actually jump in.  If one of them did jump in to the Senate race, though, my money is on Abbott.

Les Otten

Maine political observers have arrived at a consensus.  To undertake the Herculean task of getting the signatures to get on the ballot, you need one of two things: an established political machine, or a pot full of money.

Given the latter, I have heard Les Otten’s name repeated over and over today.  He certainly has the money to buy a team immediately and get this accomplished.  That said, there have been no indications from the Otten camp today that he is interested, or might pursue it.  His 2010 gubernatorial campaign was bruising and may have left a foul taste in his mouth.

Most of the folks listed here are so considered because they have been privately indicating their interest, publicly indicating it, or are too obvious to not include.  Otten has not to my knowledge been on the horn evaluating a run, but given the fact that he is unquestionably capable of doing this if he wanted, and that so many people are mentioning him, his place here is appropriate.

Jock McKernan

Child, please.

I saw the Washington Post hilariously suggest he was a potential replacement.  As interesting as it may be, I can’t think of a less likely bid.  But, I have been wrong before, so who knows.

Peter Cianchette

Former Ambassador Cianchette is still remembered very fondly for the spirited contest for governor he gave then congressman John Baldacci in 2002, doing a great deal better than anyone expected him to.

He also has money, and political loyalty.  Gold in a situation like this.

However, there are doubts about the speed with which Cianchette could assemble a team and execute a plan to get on the ballot.  Most of the former Cianchette campaign team is currently spread out, engaged in other things.  Calling them together, organizing them into a cohesive unit, and then accomplishing a goal as difficult as this may be a tall order.

Attractive as the opportunity may be, I think Cianchette stays on the sidelines.

Bruce Poliquin

Poliquin is in an interesting position.  My sources are telling me that he is very interested in exploring a Senate run, but the better option for him may in fact be running for congress in the first district.

Depending on what everyone else does, he may be in for (another) tough primary fight for the Senate race – a fight that would be winnable, but difficult.  But if, as I expect, Pingree jumps in the Senate race, he would instantly be the most viable Republican who could run for her vacated seat.  Indeed, he is the only person I can think of (realistically) that has the political base and money required to make a run at that seat on such short notice.

Being the Republican nominee in the first district isn’t the world’s most attractive position for a candidate, but in an open seat, with a financial advantage over the Democrat, and with the right message, it could be a real possibility, and one I believe to be better for Poliquin politically, than the Senate race.

Still, I’m told he is thinking very hard about Olympia’s seat, and he has the capability to do it at the drop of a hat.

Rick Bennett

Bennett is a name I didn’t expect to hear a lot today – but was presented with repeatedly.

The former Senate president and 1994 congressional candidate has been out of elective politics for quite some time, but his name always seems to be tossed around when the big elections come up.

Bennett’s political machine may have gathered dust, but could likely be activated quickly.  He is very close with the governor’s political adviser Brent Littlefield, and could potentially turn in that direction if he wanted to dip his feet in the water on this.  In addition, his relationship with key bankrollers (namely Bob Monks) means that he very well may be able to quickly put together the resources necessary for a run.

Bennett is another one of those names that people have been talking about, but I have yet to hear anything out of directly.  At this point, we really don’t know if he is even interested, but the frequency of name drops mean that there is a path out there for him if he wants it – both for the Senate race, as well as the second district.

Debra Plowman

Assuming both Michaud and Raye go all in for the Senate race, there will be a lot of pressure on Deb Plowman to run for Congress.

There is virtually no one else who is so universally acceptable (and capable) in the Republican party who could fill that void.

Plowman was uninterested in running in the second district with the incumbent Michaud and the sitting Senate president standing in her way, but with an open seat, she would be the logical choice, and the one the party – conservative and moderate alike – would most like to see.

However, as has been said repeatedly tonight, giving her two weeks to collect those signatures is a stiff challenge for a state Senator.

Final thoughts

It should be obvious, but this is not a normal race.  Had Senator Snowe announced her retirement months ago, we would be looking at an all out bloodbath, as every single Democrat and Republican who has ever been interested in her Senate seat would announce their intention to run, and massive, bloody primary battles would ensue on both sides.

But the parties only have two weeks to get this accomplished, which immediately pushes aside most of the potential candidates – former state house and senate members with no real operations or money – disqualifying them just from a logistical perspective.

That means that the only people who can even consider it are already established, or have money.  That narrows the field down considerably, likely to the people here on this list.  Indeed, many of the people I have talked about here will have problems themselves if they are interested.

Many – maybe even most – will either not try, or not succeed.  That gives the greatest advantage to folks like Pingree, Michaud and Raye, allowing them to clear out the field without any actual effort.

What happens is anyone’s guess.  This is as close to unpredictable political chaos as you can get.

One thing, however, is for certain.  We will know the complexion of this race within only a short few days.  If any candidates are going to make this attempt, it will – assuming the date is not somehow pushed back – need to begin almost immediately.

Look for some announcements tomorrow, Thursday and Friday.  Anyone who isn’t in by then is not going to be able to compete.