As The Dust Settles

As three in the morning flickers across my screen, we have seen enough to make some very rudimentary judgments about what has happened in Maine politics this night.  I will try to clarify what we know as of right now, since there seems to be a lot of confusion.

Currently, 529 of the 596 precincts in Maine have reported their results.

Paul LePage is currently very likely to be the Governor-elect of the state of Maine.  His lead has “swelled” to more than six thousand votes (187,311 to 181,291) over Eliot Cutler, and it does not appear to be a lead he will be giving back.  The only question at this point is if his lead is significant enough to avoid a recount.  The remaining votes will likely tell us that.  Given what is remaining, however, I do not expect there to be a recount.  If there is, I have no reason to think the election will change.  I believe Paul LePage is Maine’s next Governor.

Chellie Pingree has defeated Dean Scontras.  In what many of us expected to be a close race, the incumbent has managed to pull of a win.  I will be taking a look at why this was a win for Pingree in the coming days – but regardless, Pingree won.

Similarly, Mike Michaud survived his strongest challenge since 2002 against Jason Levesque.  The power of Michaud’s coalition, and the financial disparity between the two challengers is likely what drove this race.

Maine Republicans annihilated Democrats in the Maine Senate.  After the tallies are fully counted, the Republicans are likely to see a majority of 20-15, possibly 21-14.  This is a stunning, and utterly devastating defeat for Maine Democrats.  Consider that Maine has seen only two Senate Presidents from the Republican Party in the last 28 years, both of whom presided over basically divided chambers.  Maine has not had a Republican majority that strong in the Senate since the election of 1976.

Maine Republicans also handed dozens of rather crushing defeats to Democrats in the Maine House of Representatives.  Currently the GOP has roughly 72 House seats under their control, and party operatives are telling me they are optimistic that when all is said and done, they may (may) have recaptured the Maine House of Representatives.  There hasn’t been a Republican Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives since the election of 1972.  If Democrats do hang on, it will be by a very narrow margin.

The Oxford County Casino appears just as close as the race for Governor.  At this point Yes is leading, but it is too close to tell for absolute certain.

Overall, this was a very good night for Republicans.  To be sure, given the margins we are seeing in the Maine House and Maine Senate, it seems as though Paul LePage should have put together a stronger margin of victory – something that was largely due to a number of factors, many of which were his doing and many of which were not.  However, if his lead holds up and he becomes the next Governor of Maine, it will still represent the first Republican Governor in Maine in sixteen years, which is quite an accomplishment.

It will also mean that in deep blue Maine, the last Democratic leaders standing may very well be the two congressional representatives – Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud.  That is a remarkable fact for a state that went nearly twenty points for Barack Obama only two years ago.  It should also shock some people into realizing that Maine is – as I have argued countless times over the past two years – not a blue state at all, but an eclectic “gray state” full of bizarre coalitions, seeming political contradictions, and a melting pot of differing political flavors, all of which add up to a state that has the potential to swing to anyone it damn well pleases, thank you very much.

Tomorrow we will begin the long process of digesting all of the returns and telling you just what the hell happened tonight.  But for now, this should hopefully do.