The latest poll, while disagreeing on the specifics with other polls released today and yesterday, confirmed the general trendiness of the race that we have seen this week: Eliot Cutler surging, Libby Mitchell sinking, and Paul LePage with a substantial lead. Critical Insights, in the regular series of polls sponsored by MaineToday Media, interviewed 621 likely voters this Wednesday and Thursday. They found LePage with 40%, Cutler and Mitchell tied at 21%, Shawn Moody with 4%, and Kevin Scott at 1%. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.
To review, here is the polling picture of the release, including both polls released today from Pan Atlantic and Critical Insights.
This is the fourth straight poll to find LePage at or very near 40% of the vote and putting Cutler and Mitchell closer to one another than to him. It also continues a trend reducing the number of undecideds: Pan Atlantic had just 7%, compared to 20% in their other survey; CI/MTM had a similarly large number of undecided voters in their last survey. Respondents seem to be solidifying around LePage and Cutler, with Mitchell staying stagnant or losing support.
With election day fast approaching, this is almost certainly the last snapshot of the race we’ll see before the results start pouring in on November 2. With fifteen of the sixteen nonpartisan public polls released on this race showing LePage ahead, he would appear to be in a very comfortable position heading into Tuesday.
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