On the same day that Rasmussen released their new poll, Critical Insights has put forth their new snapshot of the Maine gubernatorial race. In CI’s poll, Paul LePage leads with 34%, followed by Libby Mitchell with 29%, Eliot Cutler with 13%, Shawn Moody at 6%, and Kevin Scott at 1%. 18% of respondents were undecided. CI questioned 605 likely voters on October 10th and 11th.
Demographics of respondents were as follows:
Don’t Know/Refused 5%
Very Conservative 16%
Somewhat Conservative 26%
Somewhat Liberal 17%
Very Liberal 6%
Don’t Know/Refused 5%
Strength of support data shows voters have become more confident with their choices. The level of those who were definitely voting for LePage remained steady at 76% The percentage of those probably voting for LePage increased from 14% to 19%. Mitchell’s support is still not as strong as LePage’s, according to the CI poll. 62% of those supporting Mitchell said they would definitely vote for her, up from 58%. Mitchell “leaners” increased from 8% to 10%. Cutler’s strong backers increased from 34% to 44%. The recent Rasmussen poll showed support for each candidate to be much weaker.
Like Rasmussen’s poll, CI shows more male voters are backing LePage (45%), while female voters prefer Mitchell (33%). These numbers have been fairly consistent. LePage holds a small lead of Mitchell in the 18-44 and 45-64 age groups. LePage tops Mitchell 32% to 30% in 18-44 and 32% to 31% in 45-64. Those are thin margins. In the CI poll, LePage shows strength in the 64+ category, holding 40% of those voters. Cutler beats out Mitchell here 21% to 18%. This age demographic had the smallest percentage of respondents however. Due to this, it is unclear if the numbers here are representative.
CI also divided their results by geographic location. Northern and Central Maine leaned heavily toward LePage, 37% in Northern Maine and 38% in Central Maine. LePage bested Mitchell in Northern Maine by ten points and by seven in Central Maine. LePage holds a smaller lead in Southern Maine, 30% to Mitchell’s 27%. Mitchell bests LePage in Coastal Maine by 1 point, 32% to 31%. Cutler makes his strongest showing here with 21%.
Pine Tree Politics has found fault with Critical Insights’ polling efforts in the gubernatorial race. You may read this critique from September and our newest piece on the coverage of polling in Maine.
At this point, Real Clear Politics has averaged the race at +1 LePage, with LePage at 31.3%, Mitchell at 30.3% and Cutler at 13.7%. Pollster has the race at 31.8% for LePage, 31.3% for Mitchell, 16.7% for Cutler, and 5.8% for Moody.