The results of the Pine Tree Politics / Maine Center for Public Opinion gubernatorial survey are in, and they show a competitive race at the top. Republican Paul LePage is showing a lead of roughly a percentage point over Libby Mitchell, confirming that the race has tightened significantly over the last month.
Additionally, Independent candidate Eliot Cutler has continued to struggle to catch on, and is only able to capture just over 11% of the vote. Shawn Moody, after a strong debate performance and some positive media attention for his television commercials, remains in the mid-single digits.
The biggest story of the poll is that almost a quarter of the electorate remains undecided.
It should be noted that Libby Mitchell has been consistently performing in the high 20s and low 30s for the entirety of the general election in virtually every public poll conducted, and she has not been able to capitalize on the erosion of support among Paul LePage. In other words, she hasn’t been able to win over any of the newly undecided voters, and seems thus far unable to capitalize on the opportunity presented to her.
The full results are as follows:
- Paul LePage – 29.6%
- Libby Mitchell – 28.7%
- Eliot Cutler – 11.1%
- Shawn Moody – 4.9%
- Kevin Scott – 1.6%
- Undecided - 24.1%
The basic distribution of the voter sample for our poll was as follows:
Sample Size
- 679 likely voters
Margin of Error
- 3.76% statewide
Polling Window
- The survey was conducted October 4th through October 7th.
Party Registration
- Democratic - 32.8%
- Unenrolled - 32.3%
- Republican - 29.2%
- Green - 5.7%
Gender
- 51.1% female
- 48.9% male
Diving deeper into the numbers, Mayor LePage’s supporters should certainly see a lot of very encouraging information, even despite his narrow lead.
When looking at the preferences of members of the various political parties, we can see that Paul LePage has stronger support among Republicans than Libby Mitchell has among Democrats. However, a higher number of Republicans remain undecided, mostly because Eliot Cutler is pulling nearly twice as many Democrats away from Mitchell as he is pulling Republicans away from LePage.
Republican Preferences
- Paul LePage- 58.2%
- Undecided – 21.4%
- Eliot Cutler – 8.7%
- Libby Mitchell – 6.1%
- Shawn Moody – 4.6%
- Kevin Scott – 1.0%
Democratic Preferences
- Libby Mitchell – 49.1%
- Undecided – 18.6%
- Eliot Cutler – 15.0%
- Paul LePage – 10.9%
- Shawn Moody – 5.0%
- Kevin Scott – 1.4%
Unenrolled Preferences
- Libby Mitchell – 29.4%
- Undecided – 27.5%
- Paul LePage – 26.1%
- Eliot Cutler – 10.1%
- Shawn Moody – 4.6%
- Kevin Scott – 2.3%
At the same time, of the voters who said they had made up their mind about who they wanted to vote for, Republican Paul LePage is showing a more solidified base. LePage’s supporters are more devoted to their candidate than Libby Mitchell’s. When asked to describe how strongly they were behind their choice for Governor, the candidates showed the following support from voters:
Paul LePage
- Strong - 80.4%
- Lean – 19.6%
Libby Mitchell
- Strong – 71.0%
- Lean -29.0%
Eliot Cutler
- Strong – 41.3%
- Lean -58.7%
Shawn Moody
- Strong – 45.5%
- Lean -54.5%
Kevin Scott
- Strong – 36.4%
- Lean -63.6%
The preferences by gender show an 11.1% lead for Paul LePage among men and a 9.8% lead for Libby Mitchell among women. Interestingly, women seem somewhat more undecided than men in this race.
Male Preferences
- Paul LePage – 36.6%
- Libby Mitchell – 25.5%
- Undecided – 20.3%
- Eliot Cutler – 10.2%
- Shawn Moody – 5.5%
- Kevin Scott – 1.8%
Female Preferences
- Libby Mitchell – 32.2%
- Undecided – 27.4%
- Paul LePage – 22.4%
- Eliot Cutler – 12.1%
- Shawn Moody – 4.4%
- Kevin Scott – 1.5%
So what do these results really tell us?
First of all, the race has narrowed to within the margin of error, it looks like. With multiple rough news cycles for Mayor LePage, this is hardly surprising, but as I noted above, despite the narrow advantage, LePage supporters have a lot to be optimistic about. He seems to have a more loyal and enthusiastic base that is more likely to actually turn out for him on election day. Additionally, LePage’s strength was significantly higher in the second congressional district than it was in the first, so if central and northern Maine turns out in higher numbers than southern Maine, that bodes well for LePage.
Libby Mitchell’s victory will depend on one a few important factors. Can she bring some more Democrats home for her – Democrats that according to these numbers seem tepid in their enthusiasm for her? Can she win the remaining undecided vote? Can she actually turn out the voters who are behind her, when they are less strongly behind her than LePage’s supporters are behind him?
Eliot Cutler needs to make a move, and fast. Given how soft his support base looks already, that will be an extremely daunting task.
One thing is for certain, we are in for a wild ride in the last few weeks of the campaign. Paul LePage still has an advantage, but it is a race without a doubt.
