Pine Tree Politics / MECPO Polling Preview

Pine Tree Politics has partnered with the Maine Center for Public Opinion to commission a survey of Maine voters on who they intend to vote for in the upcoming November elections.

The poll was done with live interviewers over the course of four days (October 4 through October 7), and sampled 679 likely voters.  Respondents were asked to give their preferences in the following:

  • Maine’s gubernatorial race
  • Maine’s first congressional district race
  • PLEASE NOTE:  We did poll the second district, but we had a problem with the collection of data on that race, and that race specifically, so our data for that race is incomplete.  As it was a problem only with the collection on this particular race, it does not effect the rest of the data we collected on the other races.  Pine Tree Politics is committed to getting an accurate picture of this race, however, so we will be re-polling the second district very shortly to get the data we wanted.
  • Preference for local legislative (Maine House, Maine Senate) elections
  • The Oxford County Casino referendum
  • Bond questions
  • Governor John Baldacci’s job satisfaction
  • Senator Olympia Snowe’s job satisfaction

We will be releasing the results of the poll in chunks starting tomorrow.  We will start with the gubernatorial race, and then on Sunday we will release the the generic legislative ballot and the Oxford Casino.  Monday we will release the Baldacci/Snowe job ratings, as well as the bond questions.

A teaser for you all who have been writing to me asking me how the poll has gone:

  • Paul LePage is still showing a lead.  It has significantly narrowed, however.  To the point where we can safely call this race “up for grabs”, while still leaning in Mayor LePage’s direction.
  • Libby Mitchell is beating LePage by a narrow margin in the first district, but LePage is crushing her in the second.
  • There is a high number of undecided voters remaining.  Many of these voters were formerly supporting Paul LePage but have moved away from him.  An important note here:  they haven’t moved to Mitchell, Cutler or Moody - they have simply become ambivalent about the prospects of voting for LePage.
  • Republicans are beating Democrats in a so called “generic ballot” for the state legislature.  However, a high number of respondents also suggested they would be splitting their votes between Republicans and Democrats in the individual Senate and House races.
  • Olympia Snowe is pretty popular in Maine (shocking!).  But within her own political party we have some interesting results for you.
  • The Casino vote is close.  Very close.

Stay tuned for the full results!

Matthew Gagnon

About Matthew Gagnon

Matthew Gagnon, a Hampden native, is a Republican political operative. He serves as the Director of Digital Strategy for the Republican Governors Association, and has previously worked for Senator Susan Collins and the National Republican Senatorial Committee.