North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling (PPP) has dipped its toes into the Maine waters, releasing new numbers on the gubernatorial race today.
Like the one other firm to poll here, Rasmussen Reports, they are an automated polling firm, meaning they do not have live interviewers. Unlike Rasmussen, they are a Democratic firm; they were recently hired by Daily Kos as their in-house pollster. As with the Rasmussen polls, this PPP poll was released independently, rather than at the behest of any campaign or media outfit.
RESULTS:
Paul LePage 43%
Libby Mitchell 29%
Eliot Cutler 11%
Shawn Moody 5%
Kevin Scott 1%
Undecided 12%
PPP surveyed 1,468 likely voters from 9/2 – 9/6.
Margin of Error is +/- 2.6%
It is interesting that PPP gives LePage a much larger lead than Rasmussen’s last poll in August (which gave him an eight-point advantage). PPP puts LePage at 14 points over Mitchell, with less support for Cutler. They also polled the other two independents, unlike Rasmussen, and found them in the single digits.
It is important to keep in mind that polls are a better measurement of trends than a predictor of outcomes, and with only one PPP poll, it’s impossible to determine trends. It will be interesting to see where the next poll (which could be from Rasmussen sometime next week) puts us.
The crosstabs [PDF] are especially interesting. LePage has a net positive favorability of +8, while Mitchell (-9) and Cutler (-15) are both solidly negative. Baldacci is the least-liked of all, with net favorability of -26. LePage also has the support of more Republicans (75%) than Mitchell does Democrats (61%).
All of this is extremely good news for LePage and his supporters.
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