Early last week, we reported that two Maine Democrats – State Senator Dennis Damon (D-Trenton) and State Representative Leila J. Percy (D-Phippsburg) – broke with the Democratic Party and announced that they will support independent candidate Eliot Cutler for governor of Maine.
Citing support for Cutler’s overall qualifications, experience in “business and government”, and “bold ideas”, Damon poked Libby Mitchell in the eyes and gave Cutler a lift.
Believing that such endorsements are principled statements about who someone thinks will do the best job is a romantic, yet unrealistic opinion – that simply isn’t how things in politics work. Obviously, Damon’s statement is a rhetorical game, and the reality behind his endorsement is a much deeper story. Many disgruntled Democrats have said that they believe Damon’s support of Cutler has more to do with a poor relationship with Mitchell and a desire to find a way into an administration job after his term is up. It seems Damon thinks that is highly unlikely in a Mitchell administration, or he believes that there even being a Mitchell administration is unlikely.
None the less, the point remains that it takes a great deal more than “thinking he is best for the job” to pry a prominent politician away from their own party’s nominee. Nearly every disgruntled party big wig will simply be silent or put on a good show of support for their nominee, even if they don’t think their party’s candidate is “the best”. Perhaps you consider that a sad commentary on politics, but it is the case 99.999% of the time. In both parties, there are slain primary candidates who do not feel their nominee is a good choice, but they have remained silent or given their tepid support and simply moved on.
Every time we see a break like this, there is something deeper behind it.
But whatever Damon’s reasons are, there is no doubt that high profile Democrat defections – like his – from Mitchell to Cutler, hurt Mitchell.
Endorsements in a vacuum rarely move votes. But if a slow drip of prominent members of one’s own party (and colleagues in the Senate especially) begin to move away from the nominee of their own party and toward another, that not only builds a damaging narrative for Mitchell, but discourages her supporters and makes the entire machine look weak and disorganized. In a year when the Republican base appears incredibly energized and unified, that could spell doom for her campaign.
Which brings me to the subject of this article.
I have learned today that another Senate Democrat – Elizabeth Schneider of my old Senate District (30) – is strongly considering supporting Eliot Cutler over Libby Mitchell.
I caught wind of this rumor this morning, and started asking around Democratic circles, only to hear that rumor re-affirmed by a number of different insiders.
I contacted Schneider to see if I could get clarification and more information about this potential development. Her reply was a carefully crafted dance:
I have been giving the gubernatorial race a lot of thought since the primary. I am carefully considering my options. As you know from having bumped into me campaigning [editors note: Schneider and I ran for the legislature in the same area in 2004] I run hard on my own race and that must take priority.
One thing is clear from this statement: she is thinking about it.
Were this an erroneous rumor (it is not), she would have categorically denied thinking about anything, and would have affirmed support for Mitchell. She did no such thing – although she was careful to give the impression she could go either way, and that she will “clarify the situation” at a later time.
My sources tell me that the Democrats are “putting on a full court press” to stop Schneider’s endorsement of Cutler, including calls (and pressure) from Congressman Mike Michaud and Governor John Baldacci.
It remains to be seen if Scheider will actually follow through and come out publicly for Cutler over Mitchell. Her own response to me hinted at the fact that she needs to “clarify this situation” in a way that made me feel like she could end up going either way on this.
But one thing seems apparent – all is not well in Libby Mitchell’s Democratic Party. We have already seen a state Senator and state Representative endorse Cutler over Mitchell, and we may see yet another member of her own caucus abandon her campaign. I have heard a lot recently about discontent within the party – especially (surprisingly) among Democratic women in Augusta – that threatens to lead to more defections as the campaign goes along.
And while Cutler undoubtedly would be helped by more of these cross party endorsements, what he really needs are some high profile rogue Republicans to break away from LePage and line up behind him. A narrative is quickly being written about him as a career Democrat who primarily hurts Mitchell and doesn’t necessarily appeal to center-right voters. A few visible endorsements from the right would certainly help reverse that.
For now, we are left wondering exactly what Schneider will do. Will she end up going AWOL on the Democratic nominee and support Cutler, or will she stay with the flock behind Mitchell? What are the reasons behind her current, admitted uncertainty? Why is Mitchell having such a tough time with people of her own party who she has worked with in the Senate?
Only time will answer these questions.
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