After decades of mismanagement by establishment Democrats, 2010 represents the best opportunity Maine conservatives and Republicans have had in years to elect a competent leader to the Blaine House who will get the state back on the right fiscal and economic track.
Some Mainers already know who they want that candidate to be, while many more remain undecided. Regardless, the right in Maine should be unified in sharing the overarching goal of retaking the Blaine House.
One so called “Republican” candidate for this opportunity – and responsibility – Leslie Otten, has struck early in television ads claiming he’s the one.
He’s not.
Rather than dwell on Otten’s blatant rip off the Obama campaign logo, his disturbing plagiarism of another logo from a resort in Arizona, his campaign’s apparent collaboration with a former Baldacci operative, or the fact that he lost favor with the Red Sox, I’ll get to the point quickly:
Les Otten would severely depress Republican turnout, and be unusually vulnerable to Democratic and Independent attacks in the general election. An Otten nomination, in other words, would be a squandered opportunity.
Why do I believe this? Well, let’s take a look. Afterward, I’d love to hear your thoughts.
In 2008, Leslie Otten donated $2,000 to Rep. Chellie Pingree’s re-election campaign. It seems odd Otten would support one of the most liberal Democrats in Congress, but earlier the same year Otten donated $1,000 to Rep. Mike Michaud’s re-election campaign, too.
As many regulars of Pine Tree Politics are aware, these donations were first reported by Matthew Gagnon, as was Otten’s response to this revelation. Defending himself, Otten claimed it is common to “contribute to different political campaigns to get the attention of all legislators.”
Common? Sure. Respected? Nope. Despised by many principled Republicans? Surely. Priceless? I suppose that depends whether you’re an Otten supporter or not. In all seriousness though, the point stands that Republicans are particularly fed up with “pay to play” politics and “politics as usual” this year, and Otten represents both.
Otten’s 2002 donation of $1,000 to then-Senator Joe Biden probably won’t sit well with Maine Republicans, either. This behavior would lead the GOP base to stay home on Election Day should Otten be the nominee. That is a recipe for disaster for any Republican who hopes to win in November.
A logical response to this criticism, of course, is something along the lines of, “But this is Maine, where Republicans have had a tough time winning. Otten’s veneer of bipartisanship, even if it was really ‘pay to play’, might play well with Independent voters.”
Makes sense, right? Except, there’s a catch – Otten’s appeal to Independent voters and Democrats is extremely limited.
To start, these voters are turned off by this display of cynicism and corruption. But more importantly, the winner of the 2010 Maine gubernatorial contest will almost certainly be the candidate who convinces the largest number of voters she or he will be best for the Maine economy. Therefore, like many (most? all?) candidates, Otten is running on ‘jobs’.
In his first television commercial, Otten claims that as governor he will be “job creator in chief”. Putting aside whether it is the proper role of government to ‘create’ jobs, this claim is powerful and thus would be the prime target of attack for a Democrat nominee in a hypothetical campaign against Otten. Could a Democratic attack on Otten’s claim gain any traction?
That was a rhetorical question.
Otten cites his record with Sunday River and American Skiing Company as his primary evidence he knows how to create jobs. It is true, with some startup funding from sources that are difficult to pin down, he purchased Sunday River. To Otten’s credit, Sunday River initially grew rapidly.
Otten parlayed this early success into starting American Skiing Company (ASC). Soon after, under Otten’s direction ASC took on considerable debt to acquire several expensive resorts in the Northeast and elsewhere. This was a risky (some say reckless) endeavor – one banking on a quick revenue stream to repay its loan obligations. Unfortunately, his high stakes gamble did not pan out, and as a result ASC had to sell off its resorts.
Failure is necessarily part of a free market system. While unfortunate, allowing mismanagement to go down in flames (such as in the case of American Skiing Company) benefits the rest of us who would otherwise be forced to bail out irresponsible behavior or poor judgment.
It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out what Democrats would do with Otten’s ‘jobs creator in chief’ spiel in a general election. Were I a Democratic operative (and believe me, there are several talented ones in this state), I would tear this house of cards narrative to shreds, along with any hopes of Republicans retaking the Blaine House.
Imagine it: “Executive irresponsibly” “takes on enormous debt (an amount strikingly similar to that the State of Maine now faces, incidentally)”, “drives his company into the ground, escapes with millions on a golden parachute”, “Les Otten, ‘job creator’? You must be kidding.”
Otten, himself, likely knows he’s walking on thin ice. This would explain his unusual decision to get on television so early and burn through the more than $500,000 he loaned rather than donated to his campaign. These ads are his attempt to define himself in voters’ minds before they learn more about him.
Frighteningly, this strategy might work in the primary.
Rest assured, however, Democrats would not give Les a free pass in the general. Better, in my opinion, for conservatives and Republicans to take a hard, realistic look at the Otten candidacy now, before it’s too late. There’s a rare opportunity here for us to win. Let’s ‘Seize the Day’, and not blow it by walking off the Otten plank.
[NOTE: This post was written independently by the author and was not authorized by any campaign.]
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