Is Olympia Snowe In Trouble?

On Tuesday, Public Policy Polling came out with a set of extended numbers showing Olympia Snowe with a dramatic base problem in Maine.

Facing a national mood which is turning decidedly anti-establishment and anti-incumbent, and also facing a Republican party which is growing increasingly angry with any lawmaker who steps outside the rules of party orthodoxy – Snowe is threatening to lose the support of her party, which at this point is about the only thing that can threaten her political future.

On top of those numbers, news recently broke that the Family Research Council would support a primary challenge against Snowe.  They smell blood, and can’t wait to jump in.  I assume Club for Growth is just as eager as the rest.  Their stupendous record in knocking off “liberal Republicans” with “conservatives” who then go down in giant balls of fire is of course, remarkable.

But more than that, I was forwarded something this morning that would seem to indicate that PPP’s polling is on to something.

The Aroostook County Republican Committee – a key part of Snowe’s 2nd district political base – is demanding she resign from the party:

A Resolution of the Aroostook County Republican Committee
Demanding Olympia Snowe’s Resignation From the Republican Party

WHEREAS Olympia Snowe’s Senate Finance Committee vote on October 13, 2009, regarding health care reform has been preceded by a long pattern of publicly stating she believes in Republican principles and the Republican platform while consistently voting to the contrary;

WHEREAS Olympia Snowe takes being a politician very seriously, but does not take being a Republican seriously;

WHEREAS Olympia Snowe has become a major obstacle to furtherance of the
principles, platform and general good work of the Republican Party;

WHEREAS the Maine Republican Party has fallen into the untenable condition of being expected to set aside its mission, principles and efforts in order to avoid interfering with the personal political security and agenda of Olympia Snowe;

WHEREAS continuing to allow the above described pretense by Olympia Snowe is neither good for our political system, the Republican Party, nor our nation;

NOW THEREFORE the Aroostook County Republican Committee hereby respectfully demands that Olympia Snowe remove herself from the official rolls of the Republican Party.

Signed this 17th day of October, 2009.

Gloria Duncan, Secretary
Aroostook County Republican Committee

Not a register of protest calling on her to oppose healthcare reform.  Not a demand to vote with the party’s principles more frequently – an outright demand that she resign from the party.  A move, by the way, which if it were successful in getting her resignation, would undoubtedly burn the bridge between Snowe and the party so thoroughly that she would likely refuse to caucus with the GOP in the Senate, and guarantee a speedy passage of more radical leftist legislation.  Brilliant.

So the question is – how indicative is this move by the Aroostook Country Republican Committee (which we must keep in mind, by the way, is only a handful of Republican leaders in the county – hardly the voice of the voter) of the general GOP primary voter in the state.

In the last few years, the Republican Party has lost roughly 20,000 voters who have either unenrolled from parties, or changed to Democrats.  This is obviously a response to the national mood from 2005-2008 that was poisonous for the Republican party – but none the less represents the flight of the more centrist voters from the GOP.  That means that the remaining 250,000 or so Republicans are less “moderate”, and are in fact more ideologically right, and in many cases less tolerant of elected officials who stray from the Republican platform.

If presented with a choice between a conservative true believer of significant enough profile, and Snowe – would the GOP primary voters reject Maine’s most senior Republican, and a woman who is essentially an institution in the state of Maine?

Perhaps.  But will she face real competition?  Keep in mind, that even if a “real conservative” (we all know how much I love that term) ran against her, were that person to be a “nobody”, there is no way that person would take down Snowe – I don’t care how radical the primary voters are.  For a primary challenge from the right to happen, it will have to be someone with legitimacy and/or name ID.

In 2006, Snowe did not have any primary competition.  In 2000, Snowe did not have any primary competition.  In 1994, Snowe did not have any primary competition.  Part of the reason she didn’t have any competition is because the state party had absolutely no desire whatsoever to see anyone run against her.  The party has felt since the 1990s that there have been no candidates of significant stature that could win statewide that could take her on – and quite frankly even despite her long history of “moderation”, grassroots anger with her had only been a minor consideration.

In short – she dominated the state, nobody else to her right had a prayer of winning, so they actively discouraged any challenge.  Snowe’s stature by itself dissuaded plenty of people.

But will the party continue to try to keep people out of a race against Snowe?  That remains an open question.

Remember that Margaret Chase Smith was in many ways very similar to Snowe.  She “never lost an election”, and routinely destroyed her competition in the state.  She became an institution in the state, and gained a national profile.  But what ultimately doomed her to lose her 1972 re-election race was a primary challenge from the right which assailed her for being out of touch with the state – something that destroyed the perception that she was untouchable and allowed her Democratic opponent (Bill Hathaway) to take her down.

Could something similar happen to her?  Possibly.  Personally, however, I do not think there is anyone in the state who has sufficient stature to beat her in the primary from the right who would be interested in taking her on.  Taking out Snowe and handing the election to a radical leftist is not something I would personally want on my resume.

And on top of that, I can’t imagine the bloodlust that we are seeing lasting all the way until 2012.  The 2010 elections will likely satiate a great deal of that as incumbents are wiped out nationwide – and I have to believe Snowe will spend some of the next four years trying to mend fences with the right.

And lets not forget that Senator Snowe has quite a few chips on her side of the table.  Those who hate her love to ignore all the things she does that put her firmly in the Republican camp, but I have little doubt she will be happy to remind us.  She has plenty of ammunition – consider the following votes:

• 1996 Welfare Reform – Yes
• 2001 Bush Tax Cut – Yes
• 2001 Patriot Act – Yes
• 2001 Authorize use of force against Afghanistan/etc – Yes
• 2002 Authorize use of force against Iraq – Yes
• 2003 Bush Tax Cut – No (but her no vote was because she wanted the tax cut to be slightly smaller out of concern for the deficit – gee… novel idea)
• 2005 Appointment of John Roberts to the Supreme Court – Yes
• 2006 Appointment of Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court – Yes
• 2006 Patriot Act Re-authorization – Yes

Yes, she voted for the stimulus.  The stimulus  that conservative hero Sarah Palin took 99% of what was offered her state.  A bad vote, no doubt – but one borne out of a desire to moderate the insanity of Obama’s original proposal that was dramatically worse than what we ended up with.

Yes, she voted for the Baucus healthcare bill in committee – but she did that for many of the same reasons as she voted for the stimulus.  And, on top of that, let us keep in mind I am still unconvinced she will vote for the final bill on the floor of the Senate.

The point is of course that the angry GOP primary voters who want to toss her out of the party are reacting to a handful of recent votes and behaviors.  With a few years to throw the right some red meat, a state Republican party who has no interest in knocking her off, and a complete and total lack of quality primary opponents who could really make a serious run, I remain exceedingly skeptical that she will even be primaried, let alone successfully.

I find it much more likely that the bloodthirsty, angry grassroots activists – like those in Aroostook county apparently – push her out by their constant ankle biting.

As voters, we get what we deserve.  I have heard more vitriolic pontifications about being sick of “accepting the lesser of two evils”, and supporting people who do not represent “real Republicans” in the last six months than I ever cared to hear.

What these people fail to understand, of course, is basic politics.  Governing coalitions are not, and never have been, built out of rigid ideological purity.  Political coalitions that move the needle in the direction you want are always built by a large and diverse group of allies.

In other countries with multi-party democracy this means coalition governments between 2, 3, 4 or more political parties of all different stripes who agree on basic principles.  In America, due to our winner take all districts and the strength that established parties offer, we have two parties, so those coalitions are forged WITHIN the party itself.

That may offend the sensibilities of true believers who think parties are supposed to be about absolute adherence to a unified platform – but it is the truth.  In 1994, the “Republican Revolution” that took over Congress, forced Bill Clinton to balance the budget and then maintain a surplus, forced through welfare reform, held the line against taxes – was build on the back of a very ecclectic group of Republicans who had varying levels of adherence to GOP orthodoxy, but mostly unified sensibilities.  There were dozens upon dozens of Olympia Snowes in the party during that “revolution”, and the result was the most conservative government since FDR took power in the 1930s.

Similarly, the Democrats didn’t just pass the most radically leftist reform to the American healthcare industry since the creation of Medicare because they have 250 hyper-liberal Democrats in the Pelosi mold who toe an absolutist line on the Democratic platform.  They passed it because they created a governing coalition complete with pro-life Democrats (Stupak), fiscally conservative blue dogs (39 of which voted against healthcare reform), and a variety of other political ideologies.

Indeed, it may shock all of these party purists to realize, but the center-right movement, including a huge number of anti-establishment, anti-incumbent, angry tea partiers, is actually made up of a dozen or more different types political philosophy.  These people calling for the heads of Snowe are a mix of culturally conservative big government conservatives, religious moralists, radical libertarians who themselves hate cultural conservatives, small government Republicans who just want to “throw the bums out”, war hawks who don’t have much of an opinion on fiscal or social issues, non-interventionist limited government advocates, and a whole host of others.

I wonder then, what these people would think if they actually succeeded in replacing all the people in power.  I think they’d find that what united them (hating the establishment Republican Party) would fall apart VERY quickly once they all had to put together a governing coalition and realized they were all very different politically.

So, the real point here is all of this absolutist nonsense is a lot of hot air.  The goal of every member of the Republican Party – specifically its leadership – should be to run and elect the most “conservative” candidate possible in all 435 congressional districts, and all 33 Senate races every two years.  In other words, find the most conservative person who has a chance of winning each particular district, and run them.

The folly of New York’s 23rd Congressional district was that the local GOP nominated a (very) liberal Republican in a center to center-right district.  They could have done a lot better – so grassroots activists were right to be outraged.

But in Maine, Snow is (currently) the most conservative person who can win a statewide Senate race against a strong Democrat.  This is partly due to Maine’s political nature, and party due to the extremely thin bench of potential Republicans who could challenge her and actually make an impact.

So, with all due respect to the Aroostook County Republicans, the FRC, and everyone else salivating at the thought of “sticking it to” Snowe as some kind of childish punishment for her political gamesmanship – I think it is time to take more seriously the creation of a real governing majority.

In other words, leave blue state Republicans the hell alone if they are the best you can do there, and focus on electing better people nationwide.