Public Policy Polling: Gay Marriage 48%-48% In Maine

If you thought this was going to be anything other than a dog fight, think again.

Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling (who do extremely fair, good work, just for the record) has been spending a little time talking to voters in Maine.  Today, they released a poll they conducted on Question 1 – and the findings are not at all surprising.

Asked if they would vote for the people’s veto, 48% of respondents said they would vote for the veto.  48% of respondents said they would vote no.  4% hadn’t made up their mind yet.  That, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call an even poll.

As PPP correctly points out, this poll simply reinforces what we have believed all along – that whoever wins this fight in Maine is going to be the side that organizes its supporters and gets them to the polls.  It will be about turnout – who is motivated, and who isn’t.

PPP explains their results here:

Two weeks out from election day Maine voters are divided right down the middle when it comes to whether they will reject the state’s law allowing same sex couples to marry.

48% say they will vote to over turn the law while 48% say they will vote to keep it with only 4% of the electorate still undecided.

Opinion on the issue predictably breaks heavily along party lines. 74% of Republicans are planning to vote yes while only 25% of Democrats are. Independents may end up deciding which way it goes- presently 50% of them support rejecting the law with 44% in opposition.

Older voters are strongest in their support of cutting off gay marriage. 54% are in support with 40% opposed. Senior citizens can often dominate the electorate in low turnout elections so the ultimate fate of this measure may lie in how many younger people get out to the polls and vote.

There is a strong gender gap on the issue with 53% of men but only 43% of women wanting to reject the law. It’s also interesting to note that while white voters oppose undoing the law by a thin 47-45 margin, nonwhite voters in the state support rejection by a 55-35 margin, creating the overall tie.

“The fate of Question 1 is going to be decided by which side does a better job of mobilizing their supporters to get out and vote,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state know where they stand on the issue and now it’s just an issue of who shows up.”

PPP surveyed 1,130 likely voters from October 16th to 19th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

It probably won’t be a very early night on election day.  Expect to stay up late.