Speculation about new faces jumping into the gubernatorial fray has died down quite a bit recently. Obviously, most of the people that observers have been wondering about have either already jumped into the race, or seem to be backing off any idea running. There remain a few names out there, however, that we are still waiting on.
One of those names that I have been hearing a good deal of buzz about recently is Chief of Staff to Senator Susan Collins, Steve Abbott [Left - Photo credit: Mark J. Ellis].
Ever since the gubernatorial race kicked off after the 2008 election season, Abbott’s name has been tossed around as a potential candidate. At no point has speculation reached any kind of critical mass – up until now he’s always been a potential candidate, but not one that we were expecting to see announce soon. As the election season continued to pass by, it seemed less and less likely that he would jump into the fray.
Well, back to the drawing board folks, because Abbott is seriously considering a run.
I’ve heard from multiple sources close to Abbott that he has been getting a great deal of encouragement to run for governor, and has been very seriously looking at the implications of a run. I’ve had at least four people say, definitively “he is running”, and a few others say, “I really think he is – though I suppose he could potentially not do it”. In other words, the momentum is telling us that it is really looking like he is going to run, and it would take a significant change of heart for him to not throw his hat in the ring.
Sources close to Abbott have told me that I should expect some kind of announcement in January – one way or the other.
I also spoke with some of the other campaigns about the buzz surrounding Abbott’s potential candidacy.
The response I got said to me that they think he is running. The general consensus, however, was that January was very “late in the game” for the beginning of a primary campaign. At that point, if the other candidates have circled the wagons and locked up the money, and the infrastructure (consultants, supporters, etc), it is the belief that it will be very hard for him to overcome that.
Additionally, the “Collins factor” was also cited. There is a high amount of skepticism about Abbott among the current crop of candidates, because of conservative antipathy to the moderate records of both Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.
However, not everyone was in agreement – at least one of the campaign’s I spoke with described Abbott as “formidable”, were he to enter the race. So some take him more seriously than others.
Count me among the latter. I find it difficult to believe he would not be a significant shock to the race. A Chief of Staff for one of the most successful Maine Republicans in the last thirty years, with national connections for staff and money, and an excellent case to be made that he has the same statewide electability as his current boss can not be undersold.
Yes, there is conservative anger for the moderation of Collins – but there is also a growing sentiment that Republicans are sick and tired of being in the wilderness and snarking about Democrats from the outside. If Abbott can reassure conservative primary voters that he won’t stray on many of their core principles, while still maintaining an edge of moderation – he could very well insert himself nicely into the election, and carve out a significant electoral force.
I personally believe Abbott’s entry would be devastating for the prospects of Senator Peter Mills, because much of Mills ideological base of support would also be attracted to Abbott, and Abbott’s statewide campaign experience would be a massive advantage.
But this is all speculation. Until he formally announces (and I personally believe there is little doubt he will run), we won’t know what his strategy will be, and what space he occupies.
Stay tuned.
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